Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 3.407145 3.997925 4.652414 5.430093 6.327773 7.330231 8.533332
2025-10-05 2.612777 3.438979 4.453854 5.786544 7.484299 9.568095 12.312209
2025-10-12 2.036624 2.952593 4.178982 5.927753 8.341595 11.537834 16.068872
2025-10-19 1.660966 2.616027 3.992098 6.095420 9.199372 13.574843 20.162831
2025-10-26 1.356862 2.301363 3.753834 6.113897 9.805807 15.299370 24.009666
2025-11-02 1.087744 1.976278 3.427386 5.921008 10.033937 16.459682 27.130545
2025-11-09 0.864825 1.676848 3.080146 5.620962 10.022328 17.213916 29.672550
2025-11-16 0.722202 1.486648 2.877871 5.519329 10.302038 18.437148 33.072064
2025-11-23 0.614618 1.338585 2.721638 5.466406 10.644005 19.782659 36.800870
2025-11-30 0.561318 1.285876 2.731273 5.714591 11.549177 22.186999 42.603748
2025-12-07 0.492270 1.186374 2.632193 5.735079 12.024064 23.862081 47.263712
2025-12-14 0.429975 1.088820 2.520051 5.709596 12.399884 25.383521 51.782716
2025-12-21 0.375970 1.001303 2.418841 5.700310 12.824585 27.078434 56.883838
2025-12-28 0.365996 1.017532 2.548806 6.209212 14.389488 31.178915 67.116035
2026-01-04 0.335320 0.975907 2.540282 6.408785 15.321163 34.108283 75.313873
2026-01-11 0.307980 0.937172 2.531872 6.606502 16.272056 37.174042 84.096259
2026-01-18 0.274801 0.875331 2.456280 6.632466 16.836407 39.478668 91.509618
2026-01-25 0.235293 0.786482 2.296497 6.426363 16.832284 40.547002 96.372779
2026-02-01 0.196855 0.691493 2.103076 6.103111 16.501701 40.847884 99.570871
2026-02-08 0.172086 0.632817 1.997890 5.993587 16.680357 42.320671 105.538703
2026-02-15 0.152375 0.585725 1.916918 5.936509 16.983013 44.110404 112.403629
2026-02-22 0.144856 0.578175 1.950572 6.204555 18.164546 48.112433 124.828514
2026-03-01 0.131054 0.545161 1.901309 6.226687 18.692019 50.570025 133.778400